There would need to be a limitation on the carbon dioxide equivalent CO 2 e concentration in the atmosphere to parts per million. Predictions are subject to uncertainties. The new policies will likely limit temperature increase to between three and four degrees C. This is a rise that will profoundly change the world as we know it.
Most of the abatement is through the purchase of million tonnes of carbon offsets from overseas — rather than by domestic action. The availability and reliability of such overseas offsets is unknown.
Furthermore there is a sleeper in the system that, if woken, will destroy the best laid plans of mice and men. Evidence is mounting that a recalibration of the global warming potential of methane the main constituent of coal seam gas is required. One of the core insights, which had long been developed by political scientists like David Victor and Robert Keohane, was that the quest for a legally binding treaty was, in some ways, an obstacle to progress.
After all, no treaty is truly binding. There is no global SWAT team that will bang down your door if you don't sign on. But on the flip side, adding too many legal requirements can make countries reluctant to join. If China thinks it will be held liable for its promises to boost clean energy, then it simply won't agree to very much.
So that's where the architecture for a new climate agreement was born, hashed out in conferences in Lima and then in Paris. Every country would start by submitting an entirely voluntary pledge for how it planned to address climate change. The content would be up to each individual government, rooted in its analysis of what it deemed politically practical and technologically feasible.
One upside here is that this approach ensured universal participation. Every country may as well submit something, since there was little downside. What's more, countries could feel more comfortable making ambitious plans. They don't have to stick with the absolute bare minimum for fear of failing and being sanctioned or held liable.
This approach also allowed countries to tailor their climate efforts to their own individual circumstances. China could focus on measures that curtailed air pollution in cities.
India could focus on bringing solar power to villages that don't have electricity. The Obama administration could craft a short-term target based on its existing EPA authority — it didn't have to agree to a pledge that Congress wouldn't deliver on. None of these plans were imposed from on high by UN bureaucrats. By late , virtually every country in the world had submitted something :. These pledges, known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, would be the backbone of any future agreement.
In December , negotiators met in Paris to craft an accord meant to give structure and momentum to the pledges. Under the deal, nations will be required to report their greenhouse gas emissions in a transparent way. They'll also have to return every five years to offer up new pledges.
There are also some non-binding goals around climate financing for poor countries. As I've written , the idea is that cooperation and political persuasion can achieve what the quest for a binding treaty failed to do. Because the actual legal requirements were so light, it was relatively straightforward for every country to agree to this deal. Because the pledges themselves are voluntary, the deal doesn't need to be ratified by the recalcitrant US Senate.
So, for the first time, climate negotiators emerged from Paris with a deal that covered every single country , rich and poor. Finally, everyone was on the same page. But it's not enough for everyone to be on the same page. A climate deal is only a success if it reduces the risk of dangerous climate change. Otherwise it's just puffery. Right now we're not there.
And that's assuming everyone actually follows through, which they might not. So the hope is countries will be motivated to voluntarily ratchet up their ambitions every five years. But we don't yet know if this will actually happen. The case for optimism: If you want reason for hope, you can note that in the run-up to Paris, lots of countries really did appear to offer fresh initiatives and actions.
China's pledge to get 20 percent of its electricity from clean sources by was new and a departure from business as usual. The Obama administration has been crafting new EPA rules on greenhouse gases with an eye toward these global talks. That suggests that countries really do respond to peer pressure and persuasion.
It also raises the possibility of a virtuous circle. Countries feel more confident acting if they won't be penalized for failure. That, in turn, encourages other countries to act, since they know they're not alone. At the end of the commitments under the Kyoto Protocol will expire. As is well known, a majority of countries will not meet their emissions reduction targets, and the agreement has failed to produce significant changes in norms with respect to emissions reduction.
Using a game theoretic framework and evidence on pollution emission trends between —, this paper suggests that structural imperfections are symptoms of a deeper problem of collective action. The paper demonstrates that while pollution reductions may be beneficial for global society in the long run, states will only choose to abate pollution if the short-term net benefit of abatement is positive from a national perspective.
Each evening at UTC, DW's editors send out a selection of the day's hard news and quality feature journalism. You can sign up to receive it directly here. Many countries have heating systems that still run on coal, oil and gas. But relying on these fossil fuels to keep us warm through winter adds to CO2 emissions. So what are some of the climate-friendly alternatives? Climate change is a race against time. The Climate Change Performance Index published today shows which industrial countries are in the lead, and which are the biggest losers.
Visit the new DW website Take a look at the beta version of dw. Go to the new dw. More info OK. Wrong language? Change it here DW. COM has chosen English as your language setting. COM in 30 languages. Deutsche Welle. Audiotrainer Deutschtrainer Die Bienenretter. Environment Tackling climate change from Kyoto to Paris and beyond The Kyoto Protocol, which created the first binding targets to limit greenhouse gas emissions, went into effect in February A global climate movement has been led by protesters born after the Kyoto Protocol was signed.
Asia and Africa have faced tough choices between raising living standards and limiting emissions.
0コメント